Submit to Nacho Libre at Kempton
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WELL, December is here and don't we just know it.
Although the widely referenced 'cold snap' has us well within its grip, racing, as ever, is doing its best to try and huddle together, plodding on through regardless. Yet, sadly, a proportion of the Jumps fixtures are inevitably falling by the wayside, as the frost is just too vicious, even for furlong-worths of tarpaulin.
The extreme climate is forecast to last for at least another week or so, therefore it looks as though for the foreseeable future this column will feature a high proportion of all-weather selections in a bid to combat any fixture cancellations.
The first selection for Wednesday is James Eustace's Iron Condor in the 12 furlong handicap for 3-year-olds (5.50). The gelded son of Tobougg has been in rude form of late and comes into the race off of a very pleasing 2nd in a similar race over course and distance on Sunday. The difference between that race and this is that the aforementioned contest was open to horses older than 3 and in 4-year-old winner Spensley, Iron Condor was meeting a horse who had won his previous two races. Therefore that forms looks very solid and the selection comes into this race with by far the most solid chance.
Whereas the trainer of the selection is in fine form, scoring a week ago today with 10/1 shot Marksbury, Mick Channon simply isn't, otherwise I may have opted to his Gomrath, as he is not without a chance of bouncing back to winning form. With Channon's horses out of form, I'd highlight Valid Reason as the main danger.
The very next race on the card sees a very interesting runner, but one that could just enable some of the others to go off at bigger prices than they should be.
Flash McGahon is the horse I'm referring to as he is a very rare all-weather runner for John Oxx, especially at this time of year, and the booking of Jamie Spencer will have many reaching for their Christmas savings already. Yet I just feel stall one over 6 furlongs at Kempton is going to be enough of a stumbling block, especially to a horse whose forms suggests he doesn't win as often as he should.
My mantra of following trainers in form rears its head again here, and trainer Jo Crowley is certainly flying after recent wins with Amerthyst (8/1) and Lend A Grand (66/1). Therefore I have little hesitation in putting in a favourable word for her Crown (6.20) here.
Whilst I try not to make a habit of backing 3-year-old fillies with big weights in handicaps open to horses of any age, I just feel that she could slip under the radar and go off at a double-figure price when she has a decent chance of winning.
She has won over course and distance, has the perfect draw in 9 (and the pace to make use of it), has her regular partner on top, and, as you can see from her form, obviously likes her races spaced out so the 2 month gap since her last run will be ideal. All things considered, she is certainly has a sporting chance in an open race.
The second division of the same race looks a bit more straightforward with Lake Chini looking to hold all the aces so we'll skip that in favour of the last where Mick Easterby could well double up with Nacho Libre (7.20).
Like the first selection mentioned in this piece, Nacho Libre won on Sunday so providing he's over his excursions there, he should go well again here today.
Drawn in the same 9 berth as our selection in the previous race, Mick Easterby's 5-year-old Kyllachy gelding is the type you have to catch whilst he's in form (usually at this time of the year) and the booking of Jamie Spencer certainly suggests his trainer is thinking along the same lines.
He'll have most to fear from Liberty Trail in the silky hands of the all-weather maestro that is George Baker.
Selections Summary
Wednesday, December 1:
5.50 – Kempton – Iron Condor
6.20 – Kempton – Crown
7.20 – Kempton – Nacho Libre
