DAVID STEWART: What new PM does about his in-tray will impact us all
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New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak takes over the hot seat this week and faces an in-tray that would make ordinary mortals run for cover – the economy in meltdown, inflation sky-high and Britain’s international reputation for competence on the rocks.
That said, it would be churlish not to acknowledge Rishi Sunak’s achievement in reaching the giddy heights of Prime Minister. At 42, he is the youngest to hold that office for over 200 years, as well as being the first person of colour and the first Hindu.
Mr Sunak’s elevation to PM will not, of course, be universally applauded at Westminster and beyond, even within his own Party, but it is an important milestone on the road to having a more diverse parliament and society.
Should we now have a General Election? Polling company Ipsos found that over 60 per cent of voters want an election this year. Will it happen? My own assessment is that this is unlikely. The Sunak government can run until January 2025 and unless it loses a motion of no-confidence there is no easy route for the opposition to force an election. There was a weapon within the armoury of parliamentary procedure in the past, with the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which made it easier for opposition Parties to call a General Election if a certain threshold was reached. However, this was repealed in March this year.
The Tories have a comfortable majority of around 80 and even if they were to lose a string of by-elections, their majority would still be enough to carry the day. Having said that, if I learned anything in my time in the Commons, it is this – never say never!
If the economy continues in a downward spiral and ordinary families are facing harder and harder times to make ends meet, the government may well be forced to call an earlier election.
What effect will the new government have on the Highlands? This is hard to call. My guess is that Prime Minister Sunak will attempt to build up his reputation for financial competence, which he developed as the Chancellor who masterminded the furlough scheme during the depths of the Covid pandemic, which saved and supported many local jobs.
Perhaps Westminster may attempt to make more direct financial support to local government, business and the third sector as a ‘rival’ to the Scottish Government. Levelling-up and Shared Prosperity funding are examples of this.
Top-class communication is key for any new government. My money would be on ex-Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, being given a role. We served together for a while on the Scottish Parliament’s governing body, and she has first class communication skills and a forensic political brain.
The war in Ukraine will be on Mr Sunak’s priority to-do list, along with the economy, climate change, energy, the NHS and Brexit. It is crucial that the West remains united in supporting the Ukrainian government with military hard-ware and strategic and tactical initiatives. Will a new hair-shirt budget cut defence spending? Will the new government stick to Liz Truss’s commitment to spend three per cent of Gross Domestic Product on defence by 2030? This would mean the equivalent of about £157 billion in additional spending over the next eight years. This is a very ambitious target at a time of economic hardship, with so many other urgent calls on the public purse.
Yes, how our new PM deals with this in-tray will affect each and every one of us.
