POLITICS MATTERS: What sort of nation will we become in the next decade?
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George Bernard Shaw famously wrote that Britain and America were two countries separated by a common language. What they have in common in this momentous political year is national elections.
In the US, Donald Trump is overwhelmingly the favourite to be the Republican candidate with the incumbent President likely to be holding the torch for the Democrats. The US presidential election will take place on November 5.
A Trump victory would have many implications for the UK. Would the “special relationship” between Britain and the USA be damaged by having a far right President and a Labour Prime Minister? Would the NATO alliance be weakened? President Trump, when in office, was lukewarm about NATO’s principle of “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” philosophy.
The USA is currently the largest financial supporter of military arms and technological support to Ukraine. Would this change with an “America First” President?
The UK General Election has to take place within the next 12 months. The most likely months are May and October for the election.
However, Prime Minister Harold MacMillan was once asked what the most troubling problem of his Prime Ministership was: “events, my dear boy, events,” was his reply. A world economic downturn, a new health pandemic or a military intervention abroad could all be major factors in the timing of a General Election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Currently, the polls make distressing reading for the Tories – YouGov published a survey this week, the most detailed in five years, which predict the Tories are facing a General Election disaster and would retain just 169 seats whilst Labour would win by a landslide with 385 MPs. This would give Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
The poll also makes for uncomfortable reading for First Minister Humza Yousaf, predicting that the SNP would lose almost half of its seats to Labour, holding only 25. The First Minister’s General Election strategy appears to be “look, Labour is going to win anyway so why not vote SNP to make Scotland Tory Free?” This is a step change in the former SNP campaign slogan “vote SNP as Labour can’t win in Scotland.”
The national elections in the UK and US this year will still provide shocks, unexpected events and acres of newsprint, no doubt. They also mean so much more. What sort of nation will we become in the next decade? How affluent, how secure? These are the questions voters will ask themselves before entering the polling booths, whether in Inverness or Indianapolis.
Good news
My son Andrew gave up the warmth of California for the chill of the Highlands over Christmas and New Year.
It was lovely to see him and his partner, who works as a doctor in the Golden State. They came bearing good news – they are expecting a wee girl in May!
I feel too young to be a grandad but it is exciting to look forward to welcoming a new member of the clan to the fold. We already have a rota in place for supporting the new parents – combining childcare with a bit of sunbathing by the pool?
