POLITICS MATTERS: How will Budget impact us? Fuel duty freeze will be welcomed in north
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Just back from a few days in London to attend a reception at No. 10 Downing Street for former Members of Parliament. I must confess that it was a nerve-racking experience, queuing up in front of the famous and iconic gates, waiting to go through security.
I have only attended Downing Street a couple of times since I left Westminster in 2005 – for receptions with other ex-MPs, with Tony Blair and then David Cameron as hosts.
Walking up the famous stairs with pictures of all previous Prime Ministers felt like being part of a very familiar film set, rather than at the beating heart of the British establishment. A senior Tory whip gave a very positive welcome to all the 100+ former MPs of all political complexions on behalf of Rishi Sunak.
It was good to see old colleagues and friends across the political divide, particularly Calum MacDonald, the former Labour MP for Western Isles, and Sir Neil Thorne, an ex-Tory MP who ran the Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme (AFPS). I joined the RAF section of AFPS, and Sir Neil, a clutch of senior air crew and I spent a week together in Basra in Iraq. However, that is a story for another day!
Saying all that, the substantial political issue of the week is not George Galloway being sworn in as an MP after his by-election victory, but the Budget.
This is a crucially important spring Budget for the Tories. They have suffered a depressing series of by-election defeats and recent polling data has them hovering around the 20 per cent mark – enough to cause backbench Conservative MPs to choke on their brandy and sodas in the Strangers Bar. So forget economics. The Budget will be based on winning key swing voters in marginal seats across the country.
The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt went into his budget statement aware that polling also shows that four in five voters think public services are in a poor state.
How will the budget impact the Highlands? My take is that the continuation of the fuel duty freeze will be welcomed by north motorists. The higher cost of fuel in our area and the substantial mileages racked up for business or pleasure means car ownership is an expensive but necessary outlay for many families.
The freeze on alcohol duty will benefit the important whisky industry in the Highlands and Moray and hard-pressed rural and urban pubs. The further reduction in National Insurance from 10 per cent to eight per cent in April aims to “make work pay” particularly in historic lower-paid jobs in tourism, catering and leisure.
A clever wheeze was the introduction of a new “British ISA,” giving investors an extra £5000 tax free allowance to encourage more savers to invest in UK assets. This increases the amount of tax-free saving, as well as stimulating investment in British stocks and shares.
Will all of this be enough to stop the Tories electoral doom loop to oblivion? Hard to say, but it will be worth watching the post-Budget polling closely. There is at least one new by-election coming. Will the Tories improve performance or is their defeat at the General Election inevitable?
My take is that there are high levels of dissatisfaction from ordinary voters about bread-and-butter issues: the state of our health service (albeit this is a devolved issue); the cost of heating; the increased prices of essential goods in our shops. The General Election will be this year, according to the Prime Minister and I see no way back for the Tories with this Budget – too little, too late.
