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UK government's chief scientific adviser sees evidence the coronavirus lockdown is working with the lack of 'accelerated take-off' in the number of new Covid-19 cases


By Scott Maclennan

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Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has revealed that a tentative slow down in the rate of confirmed coronavirus infections may indicate the lockdown and social distancing measures appear to be taking effect.

Speaking at the daily Downing Street briefing, he advised caution in what the numbers show and pointed to how there was a distinct lack of “accelerated take-off” and that it is possible this could be “the start of a change where we see the numbers flattening off”.

The numbers he went through were for England, which NHS Highland estimated is three weeks ahead of the Highlands in terms of the number of cases and rate of infection.

“It's worth remembering this is a brand new illness, it transmits relatively easily and in some people of course it's severe,” Sir Patrick said. “It's therefore important that we break the transmission in society – we do not allow this virus to go from household to household and the social distancing measures are about trying to slow the rate of transmission.

“The contact between people has reduced dramatically as a result of the social distancing measures that have been put in place, that in turn should lead to a substantial reduction in the transmission of the virus in the community.

“This then moves through into fewer new cases appearing, which is the aim.

“It is possible that we are beginning to see the beginning of change in terms of the curve flattening a little bit, we won't know that for sure for a week or so.

“According to the number of hospital admissions [in England], there has been a steady increase since March 16 up until April 7 but there hasn’t been the accelerated take-off and it is possible we might be beginning to see the start of a change where we see the numbers flattening off.

“We need to keep looking at it but it does begin to suggest that things might be moving in the right direction in terms of numbers and it's important that we carry on with the measures we have got in place in order to make sure that this does go in the right direction.”

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