Which hapless nation are they planning to invade now?
I guess it’s most likely Libya.
And how do I know? Well, I don’t: not about Libya at any rate. But it does look as if the British Government is planning some kind of invasion.
You see, the helicopters were flying today. We live within a couple of miles (as the F1-11 flies) of Tain Range. The only time we’ve had helicopters in the past has been in the run-up to the announcement of an invasion.
We got them immediately before the Balkans wars. We got them before the government announced the invasion of Iraq and we got them again before they told anyone they were invading Afghanistan.
The usual pattern is that the government assures us all there are no plans for an invasion of whichever country they have their sights set on. Then, while they’re still denying any possibility of military action, the helicopters come over, and half the population of Easter Ross begins to think... aha.
Usually there are continuing denials of any invasion for a few weeks after the helicopters first appear. Then the invasion’s announced and the helicopters disappear again, presumably to put what they’ve practised into action in the theatre (I always thought that a strange expression, as if the British armed forces were about to sit in on a production of "Much Ado About Nothing").
Often, when the helicopters come over here, they’re literally hedgehopping. It’s quite a sight to behold.
During these pre-war periods they sometimes fly at night, without any lights. You hear them come over, but there’s nothing to be seen. They hover for long periods over the loch behind the house, going down to just above the loch’s surface and then back up, over and over again.
Today, according to himself who was working from home, the helicopters were flying circuits. Now that’s unusual.
If there is going to be an invasion, you’ve got to figure it’s Libya.
I can’t believe how surprised everyone is that Colonel Gaddafi hasn’t done the decent thing and resigned. Political commentators scratch their heads and wonder why he doesn’t just give up.
Well, why would he? If he turns himself in, he goes straight to jail and then off the War Crimes Tribunal where he’s certain to be found guilty of all manner of terrible atrocities. He will be sentenced to spend the rest of his life behind bars.
So, from his point of view, there’s absolutely nothing to be lost in fighting on until he’s killed or captured. On the other hand, if he goes on fighting and is successful, he may live a long, contented and profitable life, dying in his sleep at a ripe old age.
In his shoes, which course of action would you choose?
It’s one of the weird ironies of the War Crimes Tribunal that the automatic prosecution of the losers in wars (provided they’re not Britain, America or their allies) almost certainly prolongs wars by allowing ruling despots no escape route.
Meanwhile, it appears that the Libyan rebels, enthusiastic though they are, couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag. Even with all the help the West has given them, they’re making little or no headway against Gaddafi’s forces.
All the talk of mass defections seem to have been exactly that: talk. None of it appears to have materialised.
Meanwhile, the pressure must be on the rebel forces. This is not a paid army. These people have other jobs, other lives. There’s only so long ordinary people can continue before despondency sets in and the fighters begin to melt away. Without more meaningful Western help, the rebels are almost certainly doomed and Gaddafi will be restored as undisputed leader of his country.
All of which leaves the West with a dilemma. They need Libya’s oil and they’re not going to get their hands on it while the country’s still locked in civil war. Neither are they likely to get their hands on it if Gaddafi remains in power. For some reason NATO countries are no longer his best buds.
It may be that invasion is the only option left.
Watch this space!
